Presence of Rare Earth Elements in Türkiye and Their Future Worldwide

As a result of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, we have begun to hear frequently about a concept known as Rare Earth Elements (REE).

What makes this concept so significant? Or is this issue truly worthy of such considerable attention?

First, the term REE encompasses the lanthanides along with scandium and yttrium. Their applications are extremely broad, especially in everyday technological devices such as smartphones and automobiles, as well as in the transmission of renewable energy sources. This is the segment most relevant to end users. As one might expect, REE also hold a critical position in defense industries for states. This is the primary reason why Trump might offer support to Ukraine in exchange for access to REE.^【1】

Between 2020 and 2023, the United States of America (USA) imported approximately 70 percent of its REE from China. Given the recent tensions between the USA and China, it is clear why the USA is seeking such access from Ukraine. The REE deposits in Ukraine alone are insufficient to reduce American dependence on Chinese imports. China controls nearly 61 percent of global REE ore production and up to 92 percent of refining and separation capacity.^【2】 This indicates that if the USA fails to reach an agreement with China, its defense industry could face long-term difficulties.

This raises the following question in our minds: Are the trade wars between the USA and China merely short-term?

Lately, I have also been reflecting on this: Has there ever been a trade war in world history before? While similar events may have occurred, the current trade conflict is causing not only regional but also global effects. For instance, by examining how much REE is used in the production of a single F-35 fighter jet exported by the USA to many countries, we can better understand China’s strategic leverage:

F-35 Fighter Jet – Lowest Empty Weight Model: 29300 lb (~13290 kg)^【3】

Amount of REE Used: 900 lb (~408 kg)

This indicates that approximately 3 percent of the aircraft’s weight consists of REE.^【4】

China, as the country with the largest reserves and export capacity, has become a critical actor for many nations. In a system dominated by a single player, competition cannot exist. Where there is no competition, all rules are written by one side alone.

One might ask at this point: Wasn’t the USA itself the sole dominant player before China? Why does it matter now that the name has changed?

Let me propose this: The world’s nations, above all, no longer desire a unipolar order. We cannot directly conclude this, but we can infer it indirectly. Having witnessed two world wars and the Cold War, countries are now striving to strengthen their economies and politics in multiple directions. This points toward a “multipolar” space where many nations seek to become “voice bearers.” This is precisely why institutions such as the European Union or NATO are currently unable to demonstrate their full functionality.

Can institutions like the European Union, which seek to alter the domestic politics of other countries, truly ensure their stability? At present, the triad of the USA, China, and Russia not only remains at the center of global agendas but also actively influences the political and economic decision-making mechanisms of other nations. This situation may create an opportunity for countries like Türkiye, which aim to act as mediators, in the medium to long term, by contributing to a new international balance.

Türkiye’s measurable reserve capacity stands at 694 million tons.^【5】 This places Türkiye second in the global ranking of raw material reserves. The USA, with strained relations with China, is a potential customer. You can easily imagine other potential countries. If Türkiye reaches a competitive level in REE production vis-à-vis China, how will our relations evolve? Before addressing this question, we must also recognize that Türkiye currently has no active production process. We have not yet entered the production league. Most of the identified reserves are located in Eskişehir. But how much of these reserves are suitable for processing? There is no clear data.

Our universities and research institutions, along with state agencies, must increase fieldwork efforts. According to the 2020 report of the Ministry of Industry and Technology, necessary research directives have been issued to various universities and institutions.^【6】 In 2024, the Ministry of Industry and Technology opened a research center at Munzur University under the name MUNTEAM. This presents a potential for various research and development institutions. Through field studies and collaboration between the ministry and universities, the transition to serial production can be facilitated and accelerated.

^{Processing Steps of REE (}National Intelligence Academy⁾

While reading a recent report on REE, I came across several proposed solutions to counter potential global threats. Two of these solutions seem implausible to me:

1) REE can be recovered from recycled products.

Some recovery is likely, but we must not forget that the recycling rate for items like plastic bottles or other packaging remains far from high. The expected yield leaves me skeptical.

2) States can establish agreements to create a non-conflictual environment for raw material exchange, thereby reducing potential tensions.

We know that some states do not recognize borders or laws. As long as mechanisms exist to impose sanctions on such states, global peace can be maintained.

The USA’s request for REE reserves in Ukraine has highlighted the importance of these resources. In this context, we have examined how the world and Türkiye might be positioned in the future within the framework of the China-USA trade tension.

Until viable alternatives are found, REE will remain as essential as oil. Their use as a tool for international deterrence is a reality. Therefore, Türkiye must become an authoritative voice in this field. We must not only add value through production but also become a party that revises international rules. Until our next article...