#3 Gray Area

Last week, the Greece government announced a comprehensive economic package worth 1.6 billion euros to curb its rapid population decline through tax exemptions and direct financial support for families with children. Since 2020, Greece has already offered a “baby bonus” program providing up to 1700 euros for a first child and up to 3500 euros for a fourth. Yet birth rates remain far below critical levels. Today, according to Prime Minister Mitsotakis, Greece’s population issue has become an open “national threat.”

The figures reveal the scale of the demographic crisis in Greece in striking terms. With one of the lowest fertility rates in Europe, the country’s rate hovers between 1.3 and 1.4, well below the 2.1 threshold required for population replacement. The resulting population decline is already being felt. Greece’s population, which stood at around 11 million in 2011, has now fallen to 10.2 million. Eurostat projections indicate that by 2050, this number could drop below 8 million. Even more alarming is the projection that by that same date, 36 percent of Greece’s population will be over 65 years old.

The impacts of Greece’s population crisis are already visible in daily life. Due to a sharp decline in student numbers, more than 750 schools have been closed nationwide, representing roughly 5 percent of all schools in the country. Moreover, the number of children enrolling in primary school has declined by 19 percent since 2018. This reduction in both students and schools is one of the most concrete signs that demographic collapse is beginning to transform the social fabric. Empty classrooms today may become far larger labor shortages tomorrow.

Greece is not an isolated case in the context of the population crisis. According to data released last week, fertility rates in England and Wales have fallen continuously for three years to 1.41, reaching their lowest level ever. The picture across the European Union is hardly different: the EU’s overall fertility rate has dropped to 1.38. The number of children born in Europe has halved compared to 60 years ago, and one-fifth of the continent’s population is now over 65.

Although this situation is most acutely felt in Europe, the population crisis has become a global security issue. For example, in Russia, Vladimir Putin has explicitly defined increasing birth rates as a “national priority.” With a fertility rate of 1.4—already low by European standards—combined with limited capacity for immigration, the situation in Russia has become even more dire. According to Labor Minister Kotyakov, Russia needs at least 2.4 million new workers by 2030. Otherwise, both the military’s manpower and the economy’s production capacity will shrink significantly.

Similar alarms are being raised in the world’s most populous countries: China and India. In India, falling birth rates are viewed as a long-term national risk, just as in other nations. Most recently, the leader of the Hindu nationalist organization RSS, which includes Prime Minister Modi and many senior officials, declared that every family should have at least three children.

In China, where for decades families were restricted to one child under the one-child policy, a similar situation is emerging. Earlier this year, in response to declining birth rates, the government announced an annual cash subsidy of 3600 yuan for every child under three. The examples of India and China demonstrate that the population crisis has become a global security issue even for the world’s most populous nations.

Ultimately, the population crisis is not merely a demographic issue but a global turning point threatening the economic, social, and political survival of states. While temporary solutions such as birth incentives are being pursued, societies worldwide face a fundamental challenge: how to secure the human resources needed to sustain both production capacity and social welfare systems.

One of the most critical dimensions of this challenge is national security. Declining populations have direct consequences across a broad spectrum—from military capacity and border security to domestic stability and deterrence power. Rapidly aging populations make states more vulnerable to external threats, while high spending on social services constrains security budgets. Consequently, many countries are forced to treat the population crisis not as a simple social policy issue but as a strategic matter determining the future of national security.

In recent days, Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank, issued a warning to European states: “The European economy cannot grow without migrants.” According to Lagarde, although migrants constitute only 9 percent of the total workforce, they have accounted for half of the region’s growth over the past three years. This statement highlights the stark contradiction between rising anti-migrant rhetoric on the streets and the undeniable dependence of Europe’s future on migrant labor.

Europe’s economic and demographic realities show that its need for migrants is growing daily. Between 2019 and 2023, two-thirds of newly created jobs were filled by migrants from outside the EU. Migrants, often working in jobs that Europeans are least likely to choose—physically demanding and low-wage positions—form the invisible backbone of the continent’s labor force. This reality exposes the baselessness of the far-right claim that “migrants are stealing our jobs.”

Moreover, the contribution of migrants is not limited to the lower rungs of the labor market. Highly skilled migrants are also strengthening Europe’s technological and innovation capacity. In Germany, 23 percent of startup founders whose ventures reached a valuation of over one billion dollars are of migrant origin. In the United Kingdom, where foreign-born migrants make up about 15 percent of the population, they account for 39 percent of the founders of the country’s 100 fastest-growing companies. In other words, they contribute far more to entrepreneurship than their share of the population would suggest.

One of the most critical areas where migrants are indispensable in Europe is healthcare. As European countries face rapidly aging populations, they are becoming increasingly reliant on migrant doctors. The proportion of doctors trained abroad is around 30 percent in Sweden and the United Kingdom, 40 percent in Switzerland, and reaches 44 percent in Norway. In short, the survival of Europe’s healthcare systems is tightly dependent on migrant labor.

The demographic picture is even more striking. According to Eurostat data, the population of the European Union is projected to fall to 419 million by 2100. But if migration is excluded from this projection, the EU’s population would drop to 295 million. On a country-by-country basis, without migrants, Germany’s population would fall from 83 million to 53 million, the UK’s from 86 million to 48 million, and Spain’s from 45 million to 24 million. In Italy, where the projected population is 50 million under normal conditions, it would plummet to 28 million without migration.

These figures also reveal a sharp decline in the working-age population. The issue is therefore not only about how many people there will be, but also about who will pay taxes, who will finance pension systems, and who will sustain healthcare services. Despite increasingly loud anti-migrant rhetoric, migrant labor is present everywhere in Europe—from factories and hospitals to farms and laboratories. Without migrants, the wheels of the European economy simply cannot turn.

At this point, the national security dimension of migration is becoming increasingly visible. In a continent with an aging population, migrants are critical to sustaining Europe’s military capacity and geopolitical deterrence. Migrant labor is now indispensable across numerous strategic domains—from replenishing armed forces and producing technology to managing health crises and maintaining energy infrastructure. In other words, a Europe that excludes migrant labor risks not only its economic future but also its social and strategic stability.

In the United Kingdom, the Reform Party has led opinion polls since April 2025, and its leader Nigel Farage has declared that if he comes to power, everyone entering the country illegally—including women and children—will be detained and deported. Yet, despite this hardline rhetoric, more than 30,000 migrants successfully crossed the English Channel by boat this year alone. This reality raises serious questions about the feasibility of the Reform Party’s promises.

It is not only in the UK but across Europe that migrants, while vital to the economy, are increasingly excluded and even demonized in public discourse. How sustainable can a society be that rejects those who sustain it? This contradiction—needing migrants while rejecting them—is most clearly visible in the rhetoric of the rapidly gaining strength far right parties in recent European politics.

In recent years, debates over “belonging” have taken center stage in European politics. The most forceful answers to the question of who belongs and who is excluded come from the rapidly rising far-right parties. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, campaigning on a promise to completely halt immigration, leads opinion polls ahead of the upcoming elections. Hungary, meanwhile, defies EU pressure by failing to meet its obligations toward asylum seekers and is fined 1 million euros daily. In Portugal’s recent elections, the far-right Chega Party rose to become the main opposition with 22.8 percent of the vote, while in Poland, Karol Nawrocki, openly backed by Trump, won the presidential election.

Even in Sweden, known for its pro-migrant image, the situation has changed. In the 2022 elections, the far-right Sweden Democrats received 20.5 percent of the vote and became the second-largest party. In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally came first in last year’s elections with 33 percent of the vote, while the growing strength of AfD in Germany clearly demonstrates the deep roots of the far right in European politics. The words of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban perfectly capture this shift:

“Yesterday we were the heretics; today we are the mainstream.”

The anti-migrant far-right wave has also crossed European borders. In Japan, the anti-immigrant Senseito Party, founded in 2020, won 12.6 percent of the vote in July’s elections and became the country’s third-largest party. Its anti-migrant stance and its “Japan First” slogan, inspired by Trump’s “America First,” draw attention as an Asian reflection of the rising far right in the West.

Meanwhile, although migrants in Europe are often legally recognized as rights-holders, accessing those rights is nearly impossible. A June study by the European University Institute, titled IRMIGRIGHT, found that more than half of the legal rights granted to migrants can only be exercised with legal aid. In other words, the rights formally granted to migrants in Europe are largely inaccessible in practice. The situation is even more striking in the United Kingdom: some migrants without legal status must pay 1.5 times more for certain medical treatments. Thus, even in a fundamental area like healthcare, migrants are excluded at the very moments when they are most vulnerable. This exclusion can, over time, escalate into open hostility and violence.

In France, this reality was again tragically demonstrated in recent months. In a small town in southern France, Tunisian barber Hichem Miraoui was shot five times and killed while video-calling his family. After the attack, it emerged that the perpetrator was a staunch supporter of the National Rally and had posted racist content on social media. In April, in another southern French town, 22-year-old Malian Muslim Aboubakar Cisse was stabbed 57 times and killed while praying in a mosque. According to French Interior Ministry data, Islamophobic attacks increased by more than 70 percent in the first three months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.

The situation is no different in Torre-Pacheco, Spain. After the killing of an elderly man in a town where migrants make up one-third of the population, violent street clashes erupted between locals and North African migrants. Although police reports indicate that the man’s killers did not reside in the town, rising tensions have moved beyond individual prejudice to become a societal fault line.

The resulting picture is a societal test that will determine the future of Europe and beyond. Migrants who keep the economy running, sustain healthcare systems, and fill demographic gaps have become the easiest targets of political rhetoric. The rising far right gathers power through short-term anger and fear, but in the long term, it erodes the resilience of European society. The real question now is this: How long can a European society survive that cuts its own lifelines and pushes away the very hands it needs?

The population crisis stretching from Europe to Asia is far more than a simple demographic issue. Aging populations are weakening the production capacity of advanced economies, eroding social welfare systems, and laying the groundwork for new security crises. This pattern, extending from Greece to Russia and from India to China, will be one of the most critical tests shaping the future of states in the coming period.

Today, the European economy and social structure are more dependent than ever on migrant labor. The European Central Bank President’s warning that “Europe cannot grow without migrants” reveals the critical role migrants play—from labor shortages to healthcare systems, innovation, and security. A Europe that excludes migrants risks not only its economy but also its social and strategic stability.

While migrant labor sustains the European economy, it is simultaneously targeted systematically—and sometimes violently—by the far right. This wave sweeping across the continent and beyond draws sharp lines in debates over belonging. Europe, by rejecting the migrant labor it needs, faces a profound contradiction that undermines its own long-term stability.